multi-year enso forecast
Deep learning for multi-year ENSO forecasts
Variations in the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are associated with a wide array of regional climate extremes and ecosystem impacts1. Robust, long-lead forecasts would therefore be valuable for managing policy responses. But despite decades of effort, forecasting ENSO events at lead times of more than one year remains problematic2. Here we show that a statistical forecast model employing a deep-learning approach produces skilful ENSO forecasts for lead times of up to one and a half years. To circumvent the limited amount of observation data, we use transfer learning to train a convolutional neural network (CNN) first on historical simulations3 and subsequently on reanalysis from 1871 to 1973.